Decision Frameworks for Complex Problems

The Decision That Looked Perfect

A company chose their new office based on one factor: rent. It was the cheapest option. Six months later, half the team had quit because the commute was unbearable, there was no parking, and the building had no restaurants within walking distance. The cheap rent cost them millions in turnover.

By the end of this lesson, you’ll use structured frameworks to evaluate decisions across multiple factors, preventing the trap of optimizing for one thing while ignoring everything else.

🔄 Quick Recall: In the previous lesson, we evaluated source credibility using the CRAAP test. Remember the importance of checking multiple factors, not just one? Decision frameworks apply the same principle: evaluate all relevant criteria, not just the loudest one.

Why Complex Decisions Are Hard

Your brain has limited working memory—about four items. A complex decision with eight criteria and five options has 40 evaluations to make simultaneously. Your brain can’t hold all of that, so it takes shortcuts: it focuses on one or two vivid factors and ignores the rest.

Decision frameworks externalize the thinking. They put the complexity on paper (or screen) where you can work through it systematically instead of juggling it in your head.

Framework 1: The Weighted Decision Matrix

The most versatile tool for multi-criteria decisions.

Step 1: List your options (rows) Step 2: List your criteria (columns) Step 3: Weight each criterion by importance (1-5) Step 4: Score each option on each criterion (1-10) Step 5: Multiply scores by weights and total

I'm deciding between these options:
[list your options]

My criteria for the decision:
[list what matters to you]

Build a weighted decision matrix:
1. Help me assign importance weights (1-5) to each
   criterion based on my priorities
2. Score each option on each criterion (1-10) with
   brief justification
3. Calculate weighted totals
4. Identify which option wins and by how much
5. Flag any criteria where options are very close
   (suggesting the need for more research)

Example: Choosing between job offers

The matrix reveals that despite Offer A’s higher salary, Offer B wins significantly when all factors are considered.

✅ Quick Check: You’ve built a decision matrix and the top two options are separated by only 3 points. What should you do next?

Framework 2: Second-Order Thinking

Most decisions are evaluated on their immediate effects. Second-order thinking asks: “And then what?”

First order: “Free shipping increases online orders.” Second order: “Increased orders strain our warehouse, causing slower delivery times.” Third order: “Slower delivery times reduce customer satisfaction and repeat purchases.”

The free shipping promotion that looked brilliant at first order is questionable at third order.

I'm considering this decision: [describe it]

Apply second-order thinking:
FIRST ORDER: What happens immediately?
SECOND ORDER: What are the consequences of those
consequences?
THIRD ORDER: What happens after that?

For each order, consider effects on:
- Finances
- Relationships
- Time
- Reputation
- Future options (does this open or close doors?)

Framework 3: Inversion (Thinking Backward)

Instead of asking “how do I succeed?”, ask “how would I guarantee failure?” Then avoid those things.

Charlie Munger, the legendary investor, popularized this approach: “Tell me where I’m going to die, and I’ll never go there.”

My goal is to [your objective].

Apply inversion:
1. List 5 ways to GUARANTEE failure at this goal
2. For each, check if I'm currently doing any
   of these things
3. If so, what specific change would I make?
4. Now list the 3 most important things to DO
   (the opposite of the failure modes)

Example:

Goal: Launch a successful product.

How to guarantee failure:

• Ignore customer feedback
• Skip testing before launch
• Assume you know what customers want
• Run out of money before finding product-market fit
• Hire only people who agree with you

Now check: Am I doing any of these? If so, fix them immediately.

✅ Quick Check: Apply inversion to this goal: “Have a productive team meeting.” What are three ways to guarantee the meeting fails?

Framework 4: The 10/10/10 Rule

For emotionally charged decisions, ask: How will I feel about this decision in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?

• 10 minutes: Captures your immediate emotional state
• 10 months: Reveals whether this decision matters in the medium term
• 10 years: Shows whether this is truly significant or will be forgotten

This framework prevents emotional short-term thinking from overriding long-term judgment.

Combining Frameworks

For truly important decisions, layer multiple frameworks:

I need to make an important decision about [topic].
My options are [list them].

Apply multiple decision frameworks:

1. DECISION MATRIX: Score options across my top 5
   criteria with weights
2. SECOND-ORDER THINKING: For the top 2 options,
   trace consequences to third order
3. INVERSION: What would make each option fail?
4. PRE-MORTEM: For each option, imagine failure
   in 12 months—what went wrong?
5. 10/10/10: How will I feel about each option in
   10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years?

Synthesize: Based on all frameworks, which option
is strongest? Where do the frameworks disagree?

Try It Yourself

Choose a real decision you’re facing—big or small. Apply at least two of the frameworks from this lesson:

1. Build a decision matrix with weighted criteria
2. Run second-order thinking to trace consequences
3. Use inversion to identify failure modes
4. Apply the 10/10/10 rule if emotions are involved

Compare the results. Do the frameworks agree? If they disagree, that’s valuable information about what’s really driving the decision.

Key Takeaways

• Complex decisions overwhelm working memory; frameworks externalize the thinking
• The weighted decision matrix prevents optimizing for one factor while ignoring others
• Second-order thinking reveals consequences that first-order analysis misses
• Inversion (planning for failure) often reveals more than planning for success
• The 10/10/10 rule prevents short-term emotions from overriding long-term judgment
• For important decisions, layer multiple frameworks and compare their conclusions

Up Next

In Lesson 7: Constructing Strong Arguments, we’ll flip the script from defense to offense—learning to build arguments that are logically sound, well-evidenced, and persuasive.