Scenario Planning Generator
PROCreate 3-5 plausible future scenarios (bull, base, bear cases) with strategic implications, early warning signals, and contingency plans for organizational decision-making under uncertainty.
Example Usage
I need to develop a 5-year strategic scenario plan for our SaaS company ($50M ARR). We’re deciding between geographic expansion (EMEA) versus vertical expansion (enterprise banking niche).
Create 4 strategic scenarios based on these critical uncertainties:
- Enterprise adoption of AI in financial services (slow & gradual vs. rapid & disruptive)
- Our ability to build enterprise-grade compliance capabilities (strong execution vs. delayed roadmap)
For each scenario, provide: vivid name and narrative, market size projections for bull/base/bear sub-cases, competitive positioning implications, organizational capabilities needed, go-to-market strategy adaptations, early warning indicators, and decision gates.
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Suggested Customization
| Description | Default | Your Value |
|---|---|---|
| Planning period length in years (3, 5, 7, or 10) | 5 | |
| Number of distinct scenarios to create (3-5, with 4 being optimal for 2x2 matrix) | 4 | |
| Types of scenarios to emphasize | bull, base, bear, alternative | |
| Industry-specific parameters (technology, healthcare, finance, energy, manufacturing, retail, or general) | general | |
| Primary organizational decision to inform (strategy, product, investment, risk, M&A, transformation) | strategy | |
| Include financial projections and numerical analysis | true |
Research Sources
This skill was built using research from these authoritative sources:
- What Is Scenario Planning? Key Concepts & Strategies SAP's authoritative overview of scenario planning methodology, benefits, and integration with business strategy
- Scenario Planning: Strategy, Steps, and Practical Examples NetSuite's three-phase framework with templates, FAQs, and implementation case studies
- Scenario Planning Process & Best Practices Clear methodology covering quantitative analysis, normative approaches, and practical implementation steps
- How to Build Scenarios Efficiently Five-step process from research question definition through scenario building
- Best Practices for AI-Powered Scenario Planning AI models for scenario generation, risk assessment methods, and confidence scoring
- The ORSP Framework for Financial Modeling Optimistic-Realistic-Saturated-Pessimistic framework with sector-specific case studies
- Scenario Planning Framework and Success Factors Define-Explore-Create-Communicate-Act-Embed framework for effective implementation
- 2x2 Scenario Planning Matrix Guide Step-by-step guide to creating four distinct scenario quadrants from critical uncertainties